Replacing Djed Spence — How to succession plan for losing one of your best players
So we’re all aware of Djed Spence by now. You know the player who Middlesbrough, actually, Neil Warnock didn’t fancy. The recruitment team must have snapped ‘Boro’s hands off to take the attacking wingback on loan. It’s not worked out too bad for either party, has it?
Forest got a loan player who is likely to win their player of the season, and is actually one of the standout players in the whole league. Middlesbrough on the other hand, already have a top quality wingback in Isaiah Jones, so they’ll likely cash in on Spence in the summer. They’ll probably make £15m+ for a player who was seen as surplus to requirements at the beginning of the season.
Every single football club needs to succession plan. It’s all part of the due diligence that a club has to carry out. What do you do when your right back hands in a transfer request? What do you do when a club from a higher division activates a release clause for your start striker? Or, in this case, what do you do when you‘re unable to re-sign your star loan player again?
Hopefully, this is where your recruitment department have been busy, working away throughout the season.
Forest have clearly been proactive in this area. They signed Canadian international Richie Laryea from Toronto on a three-and-a-half year contract. As Chris Kearney rightly points out, Laryea has a terrific ball carrying ability, especially from deep. Combine this with his ability of possession in tight areas, and you have a very similar skillset to Djed Spence.
Some Forest fans, myself included, would have liked to have seen Laryea given some minutes at LWB, where has has often played for Toronto and Canada. But for whatever reason that hasn’t happened as of yet. Looking at his playing style, you have to think he will be the likely option to fill the RWB void next season — should Forest not be able to sign Spence on a permanent basis.
On a side note, I hope we are able to see Laryea get some minutes before the end of the season. If Forest do get into the play-offs there is a good chance they could face Middlesbrough or Sheffield United — where Spence or Lowe could be ineligible to play. So Forest may well need to call upon Laryea. The good thing is that he’s still getting minutes and bang in form for his country.
Elsewhere, Forest fans will be talking about Jayden Richardson and Fin Back. Both younger players who have come through the academy. The former is currently on loan with Notts County, and has also had previous loan spells at Forest Green Rovers and Exeter City. Jayden has a similar profile to Spence, in that he’s probably an out and out wingback and he carries the ball well from deep.
I’m not certain on Richardson’s contract situation, but I believe he is in the last year of his current deal. I personally feel he still needs to improve vastly to be considered a 1st team squad player form next season. He could well leave in the summer, but if he doesn’t it could be sensible to offer him a short extension and see how he develops in pre-season.
Fin Back is an exciting young player. Having watched him plenty of times in the U23s, he’s not your typical fullback or wingback. He’s not a ball carrying wizard, but he’s good in possession of the ball, works extremely hard in all areas of his game, and has an excellent delivery. Unfortunately for Back, I feel he would be better suited to a right back role in a flat back four. This being said, if he continues to develop, he could have a great opportunity at Forest.
Is it possible to be aware of every potential replacement for Spence from all realistic band 1, band 2 and band 3 leagues? (if you’re not aware of the GBE work permit rules, I’d highly recommend having a read through Andy Watson’s great work looking into work permits). But to answer the question, no it isn’t possible to be aware of every single potential replacement.
To make our lives easier, we need to use data to narrow down the pool of talent and create a long list. From here we inform the head of recruitment and scouts about the players we need to go and watch, and have a deeper dive into the data for those players on the long list.
I’ve spoken at length already about my player ratings system, but this is a great tool and starting point to draw up a long list. If you want to find out more about the methodology, weightings or limitations you can do so here.
The article above actually discusses the weightings and talks at length about what I value in a fullback / wingback — Djed Spence actually ranks as the joint best player in that role alongside Fulham’s Antonee Robinson in the Championship. This means my ratings system should profile similar players to Djed Spence. Below you can see the type of player Spence is — essentially he’s an epic ball carrier, who engages in a lot of offensive duels. Spence is also pretty successful in a defensive sense, although he doesn’t engage in many aerial or defensive duels. Of course this is linked to the right wingback role he plays.
Enough of Spence, lets’ get looking at the players who could be possible replacements.
Domestic Options
Looking at potential signings across Premier League, Championship and League One, here are my three options from the domestic leagues currently.
Marlon Fossey (Fulham)
I’ve been fortunate to watch a lot of PL2 (Premier League 2) football this season with my previous role with Wigan Athletic, and as a general supporter watching Nottingham Forest’s U23s. In August last year I went down to Bodymoor Heath Training Ground (home to Aston Villa), to watch their U23s against Fulham. Here’s some of my notes from that game.
“Fossey’s performance was excellent. He carries and progresses the ball with confidence showing his dribbling ability. He also had great link up play with Hilton for combination play to create space to progress into, and to get in behind the Villa defence. He also showed his intelligence to play different variations of crosses and balls into the box. With better finishing from his team mates he would have had a couple assists. He’s likely going to need another loan in League One.”
Well, Fossey did in fact go on loan, and that was to Bolton Wanderers. He made 15 appearances before getting injured and going back to Fulham for surgery. This for me, is the only area of concern for Fossey, keeping fit. He’s 23 years old and has only played 25 senior league games.
Fossey clearly has many strengths. He’s in a similar mould to Spence in that he’s a ball carrier that engages in many duels, which he wins the majority of. He’s pretty successful in a defensive and aerial sense. He actually shows up better than Spence for creativity, crossing, box quality and defensively. Which is very impressive given his minutes played.
Although my player rating system does weight quite heavily towards minutes played, and rightly so as availability is key, it does impact the rating that Fossey gets as he only joined Bolton on loan in January. If we were to ignore minutes played, Fossey would be the second best fullback / wingback in League One, behind Chiedozie Ogbene.
Brooke Norton-Cuffey (Loan: Lincoln City, from Arsenal)
Another loan player here. Brooke joined Lincoln City on loan in January and has been used in various systems 3–4–1–2, 4–3–3 and 4–4–2. He’s just 18 years old and this is his first taste of senior football.
By all accounts, he’s started life in senior football very well. He has a very similar profile to Spence in build and play style. He carries the ball from deep positions, he’s confident in 1v1 duels and links play centrally in in the half space as you can see in the clips below.
Since Norton-Cuffey has only been on loan since January it’s a similar story to Fossey regarding his minutes played impacting his overall rating. Had he have been out on loan all season, we would expect his rating to be higher.
Looking at the numbers he’s a clear stand out for dribbling and ball carrying ratings. Defensively he is very active and wins 63.04% of his duels, which is some going given he averages per 8.04 defensive duels per game. He’s also gets high and is active in the box similar to Spence and Fossey.
The major difference between Spence and Norton-Cuffey is the positioning rating (which is made up from PAdj Interceptions and shots blocked) along with his box quality rating (which focuses on passes into the area, through passes and shot assists). These are both areas where I would like to see Brooke develop, however I feel this could largely be down to the form and playing style of Lincoln this season.
Neco Williams (Loan: Fulham, from Liverpool)
I’m fully aware this is an outlandish shout. But let’s say Forest get into and are successful in the play-offs but aren’t able to re-sign Djed Spence. Neco Williams would be an excellent loan option.
He’s always going to struggle for minutes at Liverpool with Trent Alexander-Arnold ahead of him. Realistically he’s probably going to have to have another loan or be sold. This being said he has been loosely linked with a permanent move to Craven Cottage.
A lot of people are fully aware of Neco Williams’ strengths, his excellent ball carrying ability, his composure on the ball, ability to link play inside and his excellent delivery and technique. Similar to the previous two players, had he have played more minutes this season, he would likely rival Spence as the best right back / right wingback in the league on my ratings.
Is he a realistic signing? Probably not, unless Forest are in the Premier League. But this is all part of succession planning. You need different plans at this stage of the season in case you could be playing in a different league come next season.
Band Two Leagues
There are a couple players of interest in the band two leagues which are Belgian Pro League, Dutch Eredivisie, Portuguese Primeira Liga and the Turkish Süper Lig.
Typically you would assume the players in these leagues would be “too good” to step into the Championship, and yes, you would be correct if you’re focusing on players from all of the major teams from those competitions. If, however, you have a deeper dive into the leagues you can find some great value.
Similar to Neco Williams though, the two players of interest do play for bigger teams in their leagues. Being realistic Forest would likely only be able to pull these players if they are in the Premier League.
Yan Couto (Loan: SC Braga, from Manchester City)
Manchester City signed Couto from Coritiba in the summer of 2020, since then he’s had a loan move with Girona (who are part of the City Football Group), and this season he’s been on loan with Braga.
Playing in the wingback position, Couto has shown excellent ability with ball, through deliveries into the box and linking the play with the forwards and centrally into the midfield. This really comes out in his box quality and creativity ratings. Similarly, you can see he does well for progressive passes and expected assists.
Couto isn’t physically impressive, and it isn’t a surprise to see him be loaned out abroad initially to get minutes. This being said, his height and low centre of gravity is something which gives him a greater ability when it comes to carrying the ball and acceleration. His physicality would be an area of concern, when it comes to him adapting to the English game. Given he will have had two seasons abroad, City could well want him to get some experience in England before seeing he could get into the first team.
He’d be a player of interest that requires further scouting for me, to see how he handles the physical movements of the game. Also to see how well he does out of possession which is sometimes difficult to see from videos. One for the list to continue to track, even if we deem him unsuitable for Forest as he is a very interesting talent.
Angelo Preciado (KRC Genk)
Angelo Preciado was not a name I was familiar with until I started data scouting in Beglium. I’m pretty sure most of you that read this won’t have been across him either unless you closely follow the Belgian Pro League or the Ecuador national team.
Genk signed Preciado from Independiente del Valle in 2021, a club who have a great reputation for producing some of the best players in Ecuador. Preciado himself was part of the Independiente del Valle who got to the final of the U20 Copa Libertadores in 2020.
Preciado is one of the few players who genuinely stands out across most, if not all, metrics. He has a brilliant ball carrying ability. He glides past his opponents, his speed and acceleration are incredibly scary both with and without the ball.
He has such great variation to his game, with the ability to stand an opponent up and beat them both inside and outside. But if they stand too far off him, he can deliver an excellent ball into the box. Defensively, he knows how to get up and down the pitch, along with putting his foot in.
Preciado’s current contract is until 2023 with Genk, however the club do have a two year extension option. As a result Preciado won’t come on the cheap, he’s a talented international and for me, has a very high ceiling. If Forest do get into the Premier League, he would well be worth a look.
Band Three and Four Leagues
To finish this piece off I had a dive into the murky waters of band three and four leagues. There weren’t that many players who stood out on the data that had a similar profile to Djed Spence.
Unfortunately both of the players that were of interest would both likely struggle for a work permit.
Firstly, Emil Holm who is currently on loan from Spezia with SønderjyskE in the Danish Superliga. He’s a ball carrying extraordinaire. His positioning score suggests he’s an active defender that gets his body into tackles and in the way of shots also.
Using the great tool that Analytics FC have put together, Holm is currently ineligible for a GBE. He’ll go back onto the list for tacking purposes to see if his performances continue, and to see if his circumstances change to allow him a work permit.
Aaron Herrera is the final player to discuss in this piece. He currently plays for Real Salt Lake in the MLS. Looking at his rating breakdown, he’s a very well rounded player. It’s worth noting that his data is from the 2021 MLS season. Currently Herrera would need to go through an exception panel, which he isn’t likely to pass given he isn’t a regular USA international (as he only has one cap). He’s one for us to keep on the list and continue to scout, and see if his numbers continue on this trend in the 2022 MLS season.
Final Thoughts
Of course every Forest fan would like to keep Djed Spence next season. But there must be plans for every different eventuality. That could mean losing Spence and planning for life next season in both the Premier League and in the Championship.
Richie Laryea was signed in January and given the general success of the recruitment this season, we would think Laryea would have more of a part to play come next season. For me, Forest would still require another signing in that position, despite having Jayden Richardson and Fin Back in the U23s.
If Forest are still in the Championship next season I feel Fossey or Norton-Cuffey would both be excellent additions to the squad. Should Forest find themselves in the Premier League, I’d be doing as much research as possible on Angelo Preciado, as he could be a very good signing with a high ceiling.
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